CCUSD
– Cave Creek Unified School District did their homework
before asking voters for $156 million in override and
bonds.
With
the recent crisis in the housing market, coupled with
the meltdown in the subprime mortgage industry, The Desert
Advocate asked CCUSD how the recent trends might affect
its
growth projections–the basis for much of the money being
asked for at the voting booth on
Nov. 7.
According
to Associate Superintendent Dr. Kent Frison, the numbers
being used to justify the bond and capital override measures
are “as current as possible,” noting the district does
a demographic study every year.
“We’ve
already talked to a demographer, we’ve talked to developers,
and looked at lots of variables,” Frison said. “It’s pretty
comprehensive.”
The
district also commissions the annual demographic report
to help project enrollments for the next 10 years. The
report, 20 pages long, touches on everything from current
market trends to the type of housing turnover the district
can expect.
Economist
Rick Brammer of Applied Economics, the firm that supplies
the demographic information to the school district, notes
in a report dated Feb. 13, 2007, the rate of new housing
growth and “the range of housing options” have been declining
since the 2000/2001 school year.
However,
Brammer goes on to say, “The rate of decline was far less
than in many other growing areas where production housing
has been very negatively affected by the sluggish housing
market, the increase in interest rates, and the exit of
many investors.
“This
downturn in housing is not expected to have as much of
an impact in the District as in other parts of the Valley
due to the current lack of production housing and the
lower likelihood of the use of non‑traditional loans
for housing. As a result, housing growth as infill in
the southern portions of the District, or in the areas
just east of the District, can be expected to continue
with only minor slowing.”
“He’s
been very accurate so far,” said Frison, adding a new
report already is being prepared for the current school
year.
Brammer
reports CCUSD enrollment increased by 3 percent last school
year to 5,928 students, up from 5,753 the previous year.
Breaking the numbers down further, he notes the declining
trend in growth will continue, as the size of incoming
classes “has begun to plateau.”
Frison
points out, though, even with growth shrinking, the district
still is experiencing growth and that those students will
need classrooms. The difference, according to Frison,
is new students are going to come out from middle schools
and high schools more than from elementary schools.
“Parents
who move into our district tend to be older,” said Frison.
“Therefore they have older kids. We still believe, in
the long run, those needs (more classrooms, a new high
school) will be there.”
Brammer
points out most new housing construction within CCUSD
is in the eastern part of the district, where the former
Christoper Verde School District briefly formed.
“Whether
the strong increase in house construction during the 2005/06
school year was an anomaly or the start of a significant
trend is difficult to gauge at this point, since virtually
all of the housing is custom, rather than within planned
developments,” states Brammer.
He
also notes later in the report that large‑lot, custom
housing tends to develop at a more stable rate, estimating
more than 40 percent of the development potential “would
remain un‑built after 10 years.”
A
pamphlet distributed by the district states CCUSD is seeking
a $32.6 million capital override fund to “purchase major
capital equipment including textbooks, technology equipment,
service vehicles, furniture and other equipment. As required
by Arizona law, bond funds cannot be used for equipment
expenditures, and the district cannot make these purchases
from the annual Maintenance and Operations budget.”
The
$32.6 million would be expended over the seven‑year
life span of the override, according to the district,
of which $23 million would go toward acquiring new technology.
About $4 million of that money would be used to furnish
and equip a planned new high school and augment Cactus
Shadows High School.
Funding
to build the new high school on the district’s south campus
would come from a $123.4 million bond initiative. Those
monies also would go toward renovating almost every building
in the school district, to include replacing outdated
air conditioning units, new roofing and shade structures,
upgrading fields, refurbishing the Fine Arts Center on
the north campus, mitigating the high‑voltage power
lines at Sonoran Trails Middle School and other related
needs.
